From Health Affairs:
New estimates released today from the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) project that aggregate health care spending in the United States will grow at an average annual rate of 5.8 percent for 2012-22, or 1.0 percentage point faster than the expected growth in the gross domestic product (GDP). The health care share of GDP by 2022 is projected to rise to 19.9 percent from its 2011 level of 17.9 percent.
The findings appear as a Health Affairs Web First article and will be published in the October issue. The article provides an analysis of how Americans are likely to spend their health care dollars in the coming decade, with projections for spending by different sectors, payers, and sponsors. The projections reflect a combination of factors affecting health care spending, including provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) that increase health insurance coverage and forecasted changes in the nation’s economy.
For 2013 health care spending growth is projected to remain under 4 percent because of the sluggish economic recovery, continued increases in cost-sharing requirements for the privately insured, and slow growth for Medicare and Medicaid spending.
But starting in 2014 growth in national health spending will accelerate to 6.1 percent, reflecting expanded insurance coverage through the ACA, through either Medicaid or the marketplaces. The use of medical services and goods, especially prescription drugs and physician and clinical services, among the newly insured is expected to contribute significantly to spending increases in Medicaid (12.2 percent) and private health insurance (7.7 percent). Out-of-pocket spending is projected to decline 1.5 percent in 2014 due to the new coverage and lower cost sharing for those with improved coverage.
Read more here.